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Pot odds are among the most critical concepts in Texas holdem. The idea is relatively simple, but many beginners pay no attention to the concept of pot odds.
Implied odds are also significant, and new poker players who ignore pot odds have no idea about implied odds, either.
This post aims to introduce both concepts. Since implied odds are a specific way of looking at pot odds, I'll start by explaining pot odds.
What Are Pot Odds and How Do They Work?
Poker Odds - Calculating Hand Odds In Texas Hold'em Poker & Charts. Learning how to properly count your outs and calculate poker odds is a fundamental requirement of Texas Hold'em. While the math used to calculate odds might sound scary and over the head of a new player, it really isn't as hard as it looks. In poker odds, you don't count outs twice if you can make multiple hands. In Texas Hold'em, you can be a winning player simply by knowing common odds and comparing them to the pot odds you're getting. How do you figure out pot odds in poker? Pot odds in poker simply means the 'price' that it costs you to continue with your hand.
Odds are a ratio of how likely something is to happen compared to how likely it is to NOT happen.
Odds are also a ratio of how much you stand to win on a bet compared to how much you stand to lose.
If I say the odds of winning a bet are '4 to 1,' it means you have 4 ways to lose for every way you have to win. This is the same thing as having a 1/5 or 20% probability of winning.
You're betting on a single number at the roulette table, and the odds offered on that bet are 35 to 1. For every unit you bet, you win 35 units if your number comes up.
In poker, 'pot odds' refer to how much you stand to win compared with what it will cost you to call a bet. Here's an example.
You're playing preflop in a $4/$8 Texas holdem game, and there's $20 in the pot. If it costs you $4 to call a bet, you're getting pot odds of 5 to 1.
If you estimate that you'll win more often than one out of every six hands, calling has a long-term profitable mathematical expectation.
Let's say you estimate that your hand will win one out of every three times. This means you'll lose twice for every time you win. You're losing $4 on those two bets, for a total loss of $8.
But if you're winning $20 on the one out of three bets you win, you have a net profit of $12.
The Concept of Outs
An out is a card you need to make your hand the winner. For example, if you have the ace and king of hearts before the flop, and you also have two hearts show up on the board, you have nine outs. There are 13 hearts in the deck, and four of them are already accounted for.
Since you have 52 cards total in the deck, and you know what 5 of them are, you know that you have a 9/47 probability of getting a heart as the next card.
You can convert that into odds of 4.2 to 1. To do that, you 47 by 9 and subtract 1. But you also get another shot at the card you need on the river, so the odds are even better than that, about 2 to 1.
If you have $30 in the pot, and it costs you $10 to call a bet to stay in the hand, it makes sense to do so. You're getting a 3 to 1 payout on a bet you'll win with 2 to 1 odds of winning.
The Rule of Four and the Rule of Two
Here's a shortcut to help you calculate the probability of hitting a hand:
If you're on the flop, and you want to calculate the probability of hitting your hand on the next card, multiply the number of outs you have by two. That gives you an approximation of the percentage chance of hitting your hand on the next card.
If you want to know your probability of hitting your hand by the river, multiply by two again or just multiply it by four in the first place. If you're waiting for the river card, you're going to multiply by two.
Here's an example. Let's say your hand has two hearts in it. And two of the cards on the flop are also hearts. You have nine cards of that suit left in the deck, which means that you're looking at 9 x 4, or 36%.
That's not precisely correct, but it's close enough that most people can tell that the odds of hitting your hand are about 2 to 1. If you're getting 4 to 1 or 5 to 1 pot odds, it's a no-brainer. If you're getting even money, it's also a no-brainer.
The Concept of Semi-Bluffing
Once you can calculate the probability of hitting your hand, you can also start thinking about adding the likelihood that your opponent(s) will fold into the mix.
Using the example above, a flush draw, you know you'll hit your hand 36% of the time. But you can also estimate how often your opponent(s) are likely to fold.
For example, if you're up against a single opponent that you estimate has a 30% probability of folding to your bet or raise, you have a 66% probability of winning by betting or raising.
30% of the time, your opponent folds, and 36% of the time, he calls, and you go to a showdown that you'll win when your flush hits.
What Are Implied Odds and How Do They Work?
When you have multiple rounds of betting in front of you, the extra bets on those rounds affect your pot odds, too.
Calculating implied odds is different because you must think about how much you'll win on the river if you make your hand.
In lower stakes Texas holdem games, a lot of players will go all the way to the showdown with a weak hand. This puts dead money into the pot, thereby increasing your implied odds.
Keeping Up With the Size of the Pot
It's impossible to calculate pot odds or estimate implied odds if you don't know how much money is in the pot. When playing poker online, it's easy to see how much money's in the pot. It's displayed on your screen.
But in a real-life, you must pay attention to how much money has been put in the pot. I've written about the importance of mindfulness for the poker player before. That's really just a fancy word for 'paying attention.'
Texas Holdem Pot Odds Calculator
You'll see plenty of players who focus on everything but the game being played in front of them, especially when they're not involved in a pot.
Here's a suggestion about how to be more mindful and how to improve your ability to keep up with how much money's in the pot: Count how much money is in the pot at any given time in every hand regardless of whether you've folded.
Keeping up with the size of the pot is hard to do at first. But like anything else, it's a skill you can improve with practice. So, practice!
Conclusion
Pot odds and outs are essential concepts in poker. Without a grounding in these concepts, it's impossible to have a clue about the expected value of calling a bet, which is an essential part of the game.
Concepts like the rule of two and the rule of four, semi-bluffing, and implied odds all build on a foundation of your understanding of pot odds.
Please enable JavaScript to view the comments powered by Disqus.Pot Odds >The Rule of 4 and 2 : Pot Odds Examples
For a lot of players (including myself), the best way to learn about something is through a bunch of examples. So, carrying on from the basics outlined in my first article on pot odds, here are a bunch of examples for you to get your teeth in to.
I will be incorporating a little of the concepts of implied odds and reverse implied odds for good measure. Don't worry though; it's all really straightforward and logical when you get down to it.
The examples.
The answers to the examples have been placed in a show/hide box at the bottom of each example. Try your best to work out whether you should call or fold and why before revealing the answer.
Furthermore, the stakes used in each example are not a reflection of the ability of the players at the table, so don't read too much in to that. These situations just take in to account very general pot odds/implied odds/reverse implied odds strategy. Strategy 'in a vacuum' if you will.
Example 1.
Hand: K T
Board: A 3 8
Pot: $2
Player A ($10): Bets $1.5
Hero ($10): ?
Final Pot: $3.5
To Call: $1.5
Action: Fold
Reason:Pot odds are not good enough. We ideally need pot odds of 4:1 or better to hit our flush but we're only getting odds of 2.3:1. The excuse that implied odds will make up the difference isn't going to wash either I'm afraid.
Texas Holdem Poker Odds Chart
I thought I'd give you an easy one to start off with. Don't worry though, they'll get more interesting.
Example 2.
Hand: A 5
Board: J T 7
Pot: $20
Player A ($100): Bets $20
Player B ($100): Calls $20
Hero ($100): ?
Final Pot: $60
To Call: $20
Notes: We are last to act with the nut flush draw.
Action: Call
Reason:Great implied odds. Even though our pot odds are 3:1 when we ideally would need at least 4:1 to continue, the fact that we have the nut flush draw with two other full stacks in the pot makes this an easy call.
Both of these players could easily have decent made hands or chasing straights or weaker flush draws. If we hit our flush, we expect to be able to get a decent amount of money in on the turn or the river and win a tasty pot. We only need to get another $20 from the pot when we hit to make this a break even play, which should not be a problem at all against two players on this flop.
Example 3.
Hand: 9 8
Board: J T A
Pot: $10
Player A ($50): Bets $3
Hero ($50): ?
Final Pot: $13
To Call: $3
Notes: Player A raised from late position preflop. We called on the button and everyone else folded.
Action: Fold
Reason:Reverse implied odds. The odds are fairly close to carry on with a straight draw (4.3:1 when we need 5:1), but if you look at the flop texture there is nothing that makes me want to carry on with the hand.
We have no implied odds (a straight would be super obvious) and our reverse implied odds are horrific. Any hand that completes our straight could easily be dominated by a higher straight, so we should be thinking in terms of what we could possibly expect to lose when we hit rather than what we could expect to win.
So regardless of the fact that we don't have the pot odds to call anyway, the fact that it could easily get worse for us makes this a comfortable fold. Don't get sucked in by the $3 bet that looks like such an innocent and tempting amount of money to call. It's a wolf in sheep's clothing.
Example 4.
Hand: J T
Board: A 2 9
Pot: $15
Player A ($100): Bets $8
Player B ($100): Calls $8
Player C ($100): Raises to $20
Hero ($100): ?
Final Pot: $51
To Call: $20
Notes: There are 4 players in the pot (one of those is you). A bets, B calls and C raises. It's up to you to act and both players A and B will also have to act after you in response to C's raise.
Action: Fold
Reason:The pot odds are bad and we're not closing the action. The pot odds are 2.5:1 and we ideally would like 4:1 to continue. Reverse implied odds also make a call less promising as there are 4 players in the pot and we're drawing to the 3rd best flush.
Another reason a little related to pot odds is the fact that there will be two players to act after us. If we call the $20, the last thing we want is for either player A or B re-raising once again, forcing us to fold due to terrible odds.
Free Pot Odds & Implied Odds Poker Calculators In 2021 ...
You could argue that if A and B just call then we will have ended up being priced in to make the call for our draw. However, that's just not a risk I would be willing to take, especially with the K and Q high flush out there for us to worry about too.
Example 5.
Hand: A Q
Board: T 2 4
Pot: $20
Player A ($100): Bets $5 All-In.
Hero ($100): ?
Final Pot: $25
To Call: $5
Texas Holdem Pot Odds Practice
Notes: Player A has moved in for $5 on the flop. Don't worry about the fact that we probably should have just got it all in preflop, just take it as it is.
Action: Call
Reason:Even though we haven't connected with the flop, the small all-in gives us good enough pot odds of 5:1 to call and hope for the best on the turn and river.
In this instance it's far easier to work out our odds using percentages and the rule of 4 and 2. Seeing as our opponent is all in, we can multiply our outs by 4 (for once) to find the percentage chance of us winning because we're not going to face another bet on the turn. Let's say we have 6 outs — 3 Aces and 3 Queens.
Cached
- 5:1 = 16.6% pot odds (try and learn this odds conversion off by heart)
- 6 x 4 = 24% card odds.
So because we only have to call 16.6% of the pot with a 24% chance of winning, it makes sense to call and hope for the best. It may seem like a bit of a wild call, but mathematically it's more profitable over the long run.
A couple of quick pot odds pointers.
1) Learn the common odds off by heart. You will land yourself in so many flush and straight draw situations that there's no need to try and work out the ratio each and every time. It's nice to know the process, but 99% of the time you just need to recall the odds of hitting for the most common draws.
- Flush draw: 4:1 (19%)
- Straight draw: 5:1 (17%)
2) You can actually call a little more than pot odds alone will allow on the flop more often than not. Very generally speaking, if you're on the flop with a draw there is a very good chance that more money will be going in to the pot on the turn and river, even when you hit some of the most obvious draws. Therefore, this extra money makes up for the lack of pot odds over the long run.
Just as long as you're careful not to use this as an excuse to call with ridiculously bad odds, you should be fine calling for a flush draw when you are getting pot odds of 3.5:1 when your odds of hitting are 4:1. You can work out how much money you need to extract from your opponent when calling without the right pot odds using the formula in the implied odds article.
Pot odds examples evaluation.
Practice makes perfect. Keep practicing.
If I say the odds of winning a bet are '4 to 1,' it means you have 4 ways to lose for every way you have to win. This is the same thing as having a 1/5 or 20% probability of winning.
Here's Another Example:You're betting on a single number at the roulette table, and the odds offered on that bet are 35 to 1. For every unit you bet, you win 35 units if your number comes up.
In poker, 'pot odds' refer to how much you stand to win compared with what it will cost you to call a bet. Here's an example.
You're playing preflop in a $4/$8 Texas holdem game, and there's $20 in the pot. If it costs you $4 to call a bet, you're getting pot odds of 5 to 1.
If you estimate that you'll win more often than one out of every six hands, calling has a long-term profitable mathematical expectation.
Let's say you estimate that your hand will win one out of every three times. This means you'll lose twice for every time you win. You're losing $4 on those two bets, for a total loss of $8.
But if you're winning $20 on the one out of three bets you win, you have a net profit of $12.
The Concept of Outs
An out is a card you need to make your hand the winner. For example, if you have the ace and king of hearts before the flop, and you also have two hearts show up on the board, you have nine outs. There are 13 hearts in the deck, and four of them are already accounted for.
Since you have 52 cards total in the deck, and you know what 5 of them are, you know that you have a 9/47 probability of getting a heart as the next card.
You can convert that into odds of 4.2 to 1. To do that, you 47 by 9 and subtract 1. But you also get another shot at the card you need on the river, so the odds are even better than that, about 2 to 1.
If you have $30 in the pot, and it costs you $10 to call a bet to stay in the hand, it makes sense to do so. You're getting a 3 to 1 payout on a bet you'll win with 2 to 1 odds of winning.
The Rule of Four and the Rule of Two
Here's a shortcut to help you calculate the probability of hitting a hand:
If you're on the flop, and you want to calculate the probability of hitting your hand on the next card, multiply the number of outs you have by two. That gives you an approximation of the percentage chance of hitting your hand on the next card.
If you want to know your probability of hitting your hand by the river, multiply by two again or just multiply it by four in the first place. If you're waiting for the river card, you're going to multiply by two.
Here's an example. Let's say your hand has two hearts in it. And two of the cards on the flop are also hearts. You have nine cards of that suit left in the deck, which means that you're looking at 9 x 4, or 36%.
That's not precisely correct, but it's close enough that most people can tell that the odds of hitting your hand are about 2 to 1. If you're getting 4 to 1 or 5 to 1 pot odds, it's a no-brainer. If you're getting even money, it's also a no-brainer.
The Concept of Semi-Bluffing
Once you can calculate the probability of hitting your hand, you can also start thinking about adding the likelihood that your opponent(s) will fold into the mix.
Using the example above, a flush draw, you know you'll hit your hand 36% of the time. But you can also estimate how often your opponent(s) are likely to fold.
For example, if you're up against a single opponent that you estimate has a 30% probability of folding to your bet or raise, you have a 66% probability of winning by betting or raising.
30% of the time, your opponent folds, and 36% of the time, he calls, and you go to a showdown that you'll win when your flush hits.
What Are Implied Odds and How Do They Work?
When you have multiple rounds of betting in front of you, the extra bets on those rounds affect your pot odds, too.
Calculating implied odds is different because you must think about how much you'll win on the river if you make your hand.
In lower stakes Texas holdem games, a lot of players will go all the way to the showdown with a weak hand. This puts dead money into the pot, thereby increasing your implied odds.
Keeping Up With the Size of the Pot
It's impossible to calculate pot odds or estimate implied odds if you don't know how much money is in the pot. When playing poker online, it's easy to see how much money's in the pot. It's displayed on your screen.
But in a real-life, you must pay attention to how much money has been put in the pot. I've written about the importance of mindfulness for the poker player before. That's really just a fancy word for 'paying attention.'
Texas Holdem Pot Odds Calculator
You'll see plenty of players who focus on everything but the game being played in front of them, especially when they're not involved in a pot.
Here's a suggestion about how to be more mindful and how to improve your ability to keep up with how much money's in the pot: Count how much money is in the pot at any given time in every hand regardless of whether you've folded.
Keeping up with the size of the pot is hard to do at first. But like anything else, it's a skill you can improve with practice. So, practice!
Conclusion
Pot odds and outs are essential concepts in poker. Without a grounding in these concepts, it's impossible to have a clue about the expected value of calling a bet, which is an essential part of the game.
Concepts like the rule of two and the rule of four, semi-bluffing, and implied odds all build on a foundation of your understanding of pot odds.
Please enable JavaScript to view the comments powered by Disqus.Pot Odds >The Rule of 4 and 2 : Pot Odds Examples
For a lot of players (including myself), the best way to learn about something is through a bunch of examples. So, carrying on from the basics outlined in my first article on pot odds, here are a bunch of examples for you to get your teeth in to.
I will be incorporating a little of the concepts of implied odds and reverse implied odds for good measure. Don't worry though; it's all really straightforward and logical when you get down to it.
The examples.
The answers to the examples have been placed in a show/hide box at the bottom of each example. Try your best to work out whether you should call or fold and why before revealing the answer.
Furthermore, the stakes used in each example are not a reflection of the ability of the players at the table, so don't read too much in to that. These situations just take in to account very general pot odds/implied odds/reverse implied odds strategy. Strategy 'in a vacuum' if you will.
Example 1.
Hand: K T
Board: A 3 8
Pot: $2
Player A ($10): Bets $1.5
Hero ($10): ?
Final Pot: $3.5
To Call: $1.5
Action: Fold
Reason:Pot odds are not good enough. We ideally need pot odds of 4:1 or better to hit our flush but we're only getting odds of 2.3:1. The excuse that implied odds will make up the difference isn't going to wash either I'm afraid.
Texas Holdem Poker Odds Chart
I thought I'd give you an easy one to start off with. Don't worry though, they'll get more interesting.
Example 2.
Hand: A 5
Board: J T 7
Pot: $20
Player A ($100): Bets $20
Player B ($100): Calls $20
Hero ($100): ?
Final Pot: $60
To Call: $20
Notes: We are last to act with the nut flush draw.
Action: Call
Reason:Great implied odds. Even though our pot odds are 3:1 when we ideally would need at least 4:1 to continue, the fact that we have the nut flush draw with two other full stacks in the pot makes this an easy call.
Both of these players could easily have decent made hands or chasing straights or weaker flush draws. If we hit our flush, we expect to be able to get a decent amount of money in on the turn or the river and win a tasty pot. We only need to get another $20 from the pot when we hit to make this a break even play, which should not be a problem at all against two players on this flop.
Example 3.
Hand: 9 8
Board: J T A
Pot: $10
Player A ($50): Bets $3
Hero ($50): ?
Final Pot: $13
To Call: $3
Notes: Player A raised from late position preflop. We called on the button and everyone else folded.
Action: Fold
Reason:Reverse implied odds. The odds are fairly close to carry on with a straight draw (4.3:1 when we need 5:1), but if you look at the flop texture there is nothing that makes me want to carry on with the hand.
We have no implied odds (a straight would be super obvious) and our reverse implied odds are horrific. Any hand that completes our straight could easily be dominated by a higher straight, so we should be thinking in terms of what we could possibly expect to lose when we hit rather than what we could expect to win.
So regardless of the fact that we don't have the pot odds to call anyway, the fact that it could easily get worse for us makes this a comfortable fold. Don't get sucked in by the $3 bet that looks like such an innocent and tempting amount of money to call. It's a wolf in sheep's clothing.
Example 4.
Hand: J T
Board: A 2 9
Pot: $15
Player A ($100): Bets $8
Player B ($100): Calls $8
Player C ($100): Raises to $20
Hero ($100): ?
Final Pot: $51
To Call: $20
Notes: There are 4 players in the pot (one of those is you). A bets, B calls and C raises. It's up to you to act and both players A and B will also have to act after you in response to C's raise.
Action: Fold
Reason:The pot odds are bad and we're not closing the action. The pot odds are 2.5:1 and we ideally would like 4:1 to continue. Reverse implied odds also make a call less promising as there are 4 players in the pot and we're drawing to the 3rd best flush.
Another reason a little related to pot odds is the fact that there will be two players to act after us. If we call the $20, the last thing we want is for either player A or B re-raising once again, forcing us to fold due to terrible odds.
Free Pot Odds & Implied Odds Poker Calculators In 2021 ...
You could argue that if A and B just call then we will have ended up being priced in to make the call for our draw. However, that's just not a risk I would be willing to take, especially with the K and Q high flush out there for us to worry about too.
Example 5.
Hand: A Q
Board: T 2 4
Pot: $20
Player A ($100): Bets $5 All-In.
Hero ($100): ?
Final Pot: $25
To Call: $5
Texas Holdem Pot Odds Practice
Notes: Player A has moved in for $5 on the flop. Don't worry about the fact that we probably should have just got it all in preflop, just take it as it is.
Action: Call
Reason:Even though we haven't connected with the flop, the small all-in gives us good enough pot odds of 5:1 to call and hope for the best on the turn and river.
In this instance it's far easier to work out our odds using percentages and the rule of 4 and 2. Seeing as our opponent is all in, we can multiply our outs by 4 (for once) to find the percentage chance of us winning because we're not going to face another bet on the turn. Let's say we have 6 outs — 3 Aces and 3 Queens.
Cached
- 5:1 = 16.6% pot odds (try and learn this odds conversion off by heart)
- 6 x 4 = 24% card odds.
So because we only have to call 16.6% of the pot with a 24% chance of winning, it makes sense to call and hope for the best. It may seem like a bit of a wild call, but mathematically it's more profitable over the long run.
A couple of quick pot odds pointers.
1) Learn the common odds off by heart. You will land yourself in so many flush and straight draw situations that there's no need to try and work out the ratio each and every time. It's nice to know the process, but 99% of the time you just need to recall the odds of hitting for the most common draws.
- Flush draw: 4:1 (19%)
- Straight draw: 5:1 (17%)
2) You can actually call a little more than pot odds alone will allow on the flop more often than not. Very generally speaking, if you're on the flop with a draw there is a very good chance that more money will be going in to the pot on the turn and river, even when you hit some of the most obvious draws. Therefore, this extra money makes up for the lack of pot odds over the long run.
Just as long as you're careful not to use this as an excuse to call with ridiculously bad odds, you should be fine calling for a flush draw when you are getting pot odds of 3.5:1 when your odds of hitting are 4:1. You can work out how much money you need to extract from your opponent when calling without the right pot odds using the formula in the implied odds article.
Pot odds examples evaluation.
Practice makes perfect. Keep practicing.
Go back to the awesome Texas Hold'em Strategy.
Texas Holdem Hand Odds Chart
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